India To Outpace China By 2030: US Intelligence Report

WASHINGTON: It might be hard to visualize or believe in today's messy, gridlocked, turmoil-ridden subcontinent, but the US intelligence community in a new report released on Monday says by 2030, a surging India, along with decelerating China, will straddle global commerce and dominate the world economy amid the gradual decline of the west.

They won't be doing it in tandem. China has powered ahead, but India's turn will come after 2015 even as China's fortunes start receding. But by 2030, Asia, fueled by India as much as China, "will be well on its way to returning to being the world's powerhouse, just as it was before 1500," says "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds," a report issued by the US National Intelligence Council, the brains' trust of the US intelligence community. Pakistan will be a no-show and may not even exist.

The report shows that India will surge ahead after 2020 even as China begins to wane or decelerate, mainly on account of demographic changes which will see China aging before India. "As the world's largest economic power, China is expected to remain ahead of India, but the gap could begin to close by 2030. India's rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China's slows," the report says, adding, "In 2030 India could be the rising economic powerhouse that China is seen to be today. China's current economic growth rate -- 8 to 10 percent -- will probably be a distant memory."

According to the report, the total size of the Chinese working-age population will peak in 2016 and decline from 994 million to about 961 million in 2030. In contrast, India's working-age population is unlikely to peak until about 2050. In terms of timeline, India's demographic window of opportunity is between 2015 to 2050, whereas China's is 1990 to 2025. In contrast, the US fecundity was at its best between 1970 to 2015, presaging the country's gradual decline. India's median age, currently at 26, will be 32 by 2030, still the lowest among the top ten economies in the world.

The report forecasts that sometime after 2030, India, not China will have the world's largest middle-class consumption, bigger than US and EU combined. But both China and India, it says, faces the prospect of being trapped in middle-income status, with their per capita income not continuing to increase to the level of the world's advanced economies unless they resolve their resource constraints (mainly water, energy, food) and invest more in science and technology to continue to move their economy up the value chain.

Indeed, the India-China economic journey is not without hurdles or pitfalls, especially with regards to the global scrap for resources and the effects of climate change. But if they surmount the difficulties and things pan out well, India and China will dominate a world in 2030 that will largely be "middle-class, not poor, which has been the condition of most people throughout human history."

Google critic disappointed with FTC, meet with Justice

Critics of Google, fearing that an antitrust investigation into the search giant by the Federal Trade Commission will not produce a strong conclusion, may be ready to take their grievances next to the Justice Department.

At least one Google adversary met with Justice Department
officials recently, pressing them to investigate, according to two sources with knowledge of the situation.

The FTC is believed to be close to wrapping up an investigation into accusations that the search giant uses its dominance to squash competitors in shopping and travel, blocks rivals' access to its Android wireless operating system, and asks courts to stop sales of products that it says infringe essential patents.

"The entire technology industry wants to see the FTC take action," said one lawyer following the probe. "If the FTC lets down the entire tech industry, the next time the tech industry has a concern they're going to go to the DOJ (Justice Department)."

The lawyer also pointed to the possibility of congressional hearings aimed at probing the FTC itself if the agency reached what Google critics considered a weak conclusion.

Gary Reback, who also represents Google's critics, said he had not taken clients to meet with the Justice Department recently because it was "too early to throw in the towel with the FTC."

"This goes well beyond an emotional response. If the FTC isn't equipped to deal with this, they shouldn't have taken it on in the first place," said Reback, who is with the law firm Carr & Ferrell LLP. "Believe me, I know how to find the (Justice Department) antitrust division."

Both the Justice Department and the FTC enforce antitrust law, although the commission has more arrows in its quiver because it can pursue companies for ill-defined "unfair" practices while the Justice Department cannot, said David Balto, an FTC veteran now in private practice.

Balto doubted that the Justice Department would take up action against Google.

"They're (the Justice Department) going to say 'no,'" he said. "What are we going to do? At the end of every investigation are we going to let people change the rules and change courts?"

A decision by the FTC is expected by the end of the year. The European Commission, which is also probing Google, is expected to announce a decision next month.

Apple launches iPad mini in India, basic version to cost Rs. 21,900

Tech giant Apple's much awaited smaller version of the iPad has finally been released in India with a price tag of 21,900 rupees for the basic version.

The 7-inch iPad Mini is 23% slimmer and weighs 53% lesser than the iPad tablet. According to the Wall Street Journal, the
tablet computer has a 10-hour battery life for long usage.

Pad mini basic verion comes with a 16-gigabit storage capacity, and allows users to access the internet via Wi-Fi networks.

While the advanced version with 64-gigabit capacity, Retina display and internet access through both Wi-Fi and cellular networks has been priced at Rs. 41,900, the paper said.

According to the Journal, Apple will also start selling its latest fourth-generation iPad in India from Friday.

The firm has priced the base 16-GB Wi-Fi version for Rs. 31, 900 per piece and the most-advanced version at Rs. 51, 900 per unit.

Pakistan should not tour India: Ehsan Mani

Former ICC President Ehsan Mani has criticised the Pakistan Cricket Board for agreeing to tour India for a short one-day series later this month.

"I think the PCB is wrong to have agreed to this. If it is a political decision, then the PCB should have asked the politicians to make
sure that India reciprocated by coming and playing against Pakistan even if it was at a neutral venue," Mani said in an interview on 'Pakpassion.net' website.

Mani who was Pakistan's representative in the ICC before becoming its President in 2003 said he couldn't understand how the PCB agreed to play in India when the nation owes Pakistan two series which it has cancelled out on.

He said from a reciprocity point of view, it is totally wrong that Pakistan should be going to India.

"My opinion is Pakistan should not be going to India at all. India or the BCCI went out of its way after the Mumbai attack to isolate Pakistan cricket at the ICC," Mani said.

He pointed out that BCCI knew well that by refusing to play Pakistan even at a neutral venue, they were going to cost the PCB a huge amount of money.

Opposition lashes Out at Govt after 'Walmart lobbying' Claim

The issue of FDI in retail came to haunt the government again in Parliament with a united Opposition demanding an inquiry and reply from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on reports of Walmart spending huge money to lobby for entry into the country's market.

Forcing two adjournments in the Rajya Sabha before lunch, members from BJP, CPI-M, CPI, SP, JD-U, Trinamool Congress, AGP and AIADMK said the measure should be withdrawn as "corruption" has come to fore now because lobbying is illegal in India.

Raising the issue during Zero Hour, Ravishankar Prasad (BJP) said apprehensions were raised earlier also about Wal-Mart spending huge money to lobby for entering the country's market, which has now been proved true.

"Walmart has in its lobbying disclosure report to the US Senate said it has spent Rs. 125 crore on lobbying and $3 million have been spent in 2012 itself for entering the Indian market.

"Lobbying is illegal in India. Lobbying is a kind of bribe. If Walmart has said that hundreds of crores of rupees were spent in India, then it is a kind of bribe. Government should tell who was given this bribe. This raises a question mark on the implementation of FDI in retail," Prasad said.

He was supported by members from other opposition parties with TMC leader D Bandopadhyay waving a newspaper report and CPI-M member P Rajeeve asking for an "independent inquiry" into the whole episode alleging that there are some reports saying Walmart invested money even before FEMA was amended.

"This is bribery," he said as the Opposition members shouted slogans in favour of withdrawing FDI.

Amid din, SP members trooped into the Well shouting slogans against the government's move to bring reservation in promotion for SCs/STs. Government has listed the Constitution (117th Amendment) Bill, 2012 for this purpose in the House on Monday.